Washington, Aug 21 — As US President Donald Trump met European leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine, experts cautioned that the real challenge lies not with Russia but with Ukraine’s European allies.
Mikhail Troitskiy, visiting Professor at Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, told IANS that only a few countries are likely to commit significant financial or military support. “Some European countries may provide hundreds of millions or even a billion dollars, but few are willing to deploy troops if Ukraine is attacked again,” he said.
Troitskiy argued that Russia lacks the ability to veto Western assistance. “Russia’s position is a red herring. The decisions are made between Ukraine and its Western partners,” he emphasized. He described the recent US-Europe discussions as a “show of unity,” with Trump acting more like a mediator than a Ukraine advocate. However, details on the scale of commitments remain unclear.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni pushed for NATO-style guarantees, invoking Article 5. Trump, while promising “a lot of help,” ruled out deploying US ground forces but suggested air support as an option.
On possible peace negotiations, Troitskiy said Ukraine’s stance has shifted from refusing territorial concessions to considering proportionate swaps. He suggested Russia may propose exchanging unoccupied parts of Donbas or southern Ukraine for territories under Russian control. Still, Zelensky is unlikely to cede Donetsk unilaterally.
Currently, Russia controls about 20% of Ukraine, including most of Luhansk, three-fourths of Donetsk, and large parts of Kherson.
Troitskiy also predicted that US secondary sanctions on India for Russian oil purchases could take effect on August 27, though similar measures against China are unlikely. He added that Trump could escalate pressure on Russia through sanctions on banks and cryptocurrency traders.
